NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTNippert Stadium

#8 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Cincinnati Bearcats

TV · FS1

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TTU -10.5

51%

TTU 33.88–22.70 CIN

#8Texas Tech Red Raiders

6-0 · W6 · computer pick

227 PF · 106 PA

33.88

Projected

Cincinnati Bearcats

4-2 · L2

211 PF · 161 PA

22.70

TTU 75%CIN 25%

Projected TTU 33.88–22.70 CIN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TTU -12.6

TTU -10.5

Total

56.7

56.5

Gap: -2.1 margin, +0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TTU vs CIN

The model

How this number was built

TTU 33.88–22.70 CIN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CIN +3.5 vs TTU +19.4 · pred margin -11.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.3 vs +14.0 · model CIN 22.7–34.6 TTU
Home field
+3.0 pts to CIN
Record
CIN 4-2 · TTU 6-0
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TTU -10.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Will Hammond
Pass 115/168, 1334 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
J'Koby Williams
Rush 74 CAR, 538 YDS, 5 TD
Kenny Johnson
Rec 24 REC, 418 YDS, 1 TD

JC French IV
Pass 108/153, 1338 YDS, 9 TD
Cole Tabb
Rush 49 CAR, 448 YDS, 8 TD
JV Gibson
Rec 25 REC, 342 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TTU	CIN
Points Per Game	37.8	35.2
Total Yards	422.3	460.0
Yards Passing	229.8	228.8
Yards Rushing	192.5	231.2
Points Allowed Per Game	17.7	26.8
Yards Allowed	363.8	434.3
Pass Yards Allowed	281.8	294.0
Rush Yards Allowed	82.0	140.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Texas Tech vs Cincinnati prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TTU -10.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Texas Tech 33.9, Cincinnati 22.7. Model win probability: Cincinnati 25%, Texas Tech 75%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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