NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTDavid Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks

TV · TNT

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

KU +1.5

52%

BAY 28.04–26.41 KU

Baylor Bears

4-2 · L1

180 PF · 88 PA

28.04

Projected

Kansas Jayhawks

2-4 · L2 · computer pick

192 PF · 144 PA

26.41

BAY 54%KU 46%

Projected BAY 28.04–26.41 KU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BAY -1.9

BAY -1.5

Total

54.4

54.5

Gap: -0.4 margin, -0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BAY vs KU

The model

How this number was built

BAY 28.04–26.41 KU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
KU +3.7 vs BAY +10.0 · pred margin -1.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.1 vs +5.4 · model KU 27.6–26.4 BAY
Home field
+3.0 pts to KU
Record
KU 2-4 · BAY 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward BAY -1.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

DJ Lagway
Pass 93/186, 1116 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT
Dawson Pendergrass
Rush 90 CAR, 327 YDS, 1 TD
Gavin Freeman
Rec 49 REC, 555 YDS, 2 TD

Isaiah Marshall
Pass 88/167, 1294 YDS, 9 TD, 5 INT
Dylan Edwards
Rush 75 CAR, 375 YDS, 4 TD
Nik McMillan
Rec 23 REC, 400 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BAY	KU
Points Per Game	30.0	32.0
Total Yards	436.2	449.5
Yards Passing	286.0	242.5
Yards Rushing	150.2	207.0
Points Allowed Per Game	14.7	24.0
Yards Allowed	326.7	348.7
Pass Yards Allowed	240.0	174.3
Rush Yards Allowed	86.7	174.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Baylor vs Kansas prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KU +1.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Baylor 28.0, Kansas 26.4. Model win probability: Kansas 46%, Baylor 54%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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