NCAAFSat 11:45 AM CTVaught-Hemingway Stadium

Auburn Tigers at #12 Ole Miss Rebels

TV · SEC Network

Sat 11:45 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

AUB +13.5

52%

At lock AUB 21.96–34.51 MISS · MISS by 12.5 pts vs AUB +13.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Brown · AUB
QB
K. Singleton · AUB
WR
T. Chambliss · MISS
QB
K. Lacy · MISS
RB
D. Alexander · MISS
WR

Auburn Tigers

4-3 · L1 · computer pick

178 PF · 169 PA

21.96

Projected

#12Ole Miss Rebels

5-2 · L1

252 PF · 177 PA

34.51

AUB 22%MISS 78%

At lock: projected AUB 21.96–34.51 MISS

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MISS -10.0

MISS -13.5

Total

56.5

57.5

Gap: -3.5 margin, -1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: AUB vs MISS

The model

How this number was built

AUB 21.96–34.51 MISS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MISS +18.9 vs AUB +12.1 · pred margin +12.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.3 vs +4.6 · model MISS 32.5–21.9 AUB
Home field
+3.0 pts to MISS
Record
MISS 5-2 · AUB 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MISS -13.5 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Byrum Brown
Pass 134/209, 1365 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT
Byrum Brown
Rush 126 CAR, 480 YDS, 6 TD
Keshaun Singleton
Rec 36 REC, 431 YDS, 2 TD

Trinidad Chambliss
Pass 167/262, 1926 YDS, 16 TD, 7 INT
Kewan Lacy
Rush 78 CAR, 388 YDS, 5 TD
Deuce Alexander
Rec 43 REC, 610 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AUB	MISS
Points Per Game	25.4	36.0
Total Yards	376.6	432.9
Yards Passing	211.0	284.9
Yards Rushing	165.6	148.0
Points Allowed Per Game	24.1	25.3
Yards Allowed	396.9	394.1
Pass Yards Allowed	250.7	233.0
Rush Yards Allowed	146.1	161.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Auburn vs Ole Miss prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is AUB +13.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Auburn 22.0, Ole Miss 34.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Ole Miss 78%, Auburn 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day