NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTMercedes-Benz Stadium

#17 Florida Gators at #3 Georgia Bulldogs

TV · ABC

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UGA -10.5

54%

At lock FLA 22.25–34.28 UGA · UGA by 12.0 pts vs UGA -10.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Philo · FLA
QB
J. Baugh · FLA
RB
D. Wilson · FLA
WR
G. Stockton · UGA
QB
D. Phillips Jr. · UGA
RB
C. Dandridge · UGA
WR

#17Florida Gators

5-2 · W1

277 PF · 198 PA

22.25

Projected

#3Georgia Bulldogs

6-1 · L1 · computer pick

301 PF · 111 PA

34.28

FLA 22%UGA 78%

At lock: projected FLA 22.25–34.28 UGA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UGA -16.1

UGA -10.5

Total

56.6

56.5

Gap: +5.6 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FLA vs UGA

The model

How this number was built

FLA 22.25–34.28 UGA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UGA +26.5 vs FLA +14.5 · pred margin +12.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +14.5 vs +4.7 · model UGA 37.6–19.1 FLA
Home field
+3.0 pts to UGA
Record
UGA 6-1 · FLA 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward UGA -10.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Aaron Philo
Pass 105/149, 1341 YDS, 9 TD, 3 INT
Jadan Baugh
Rush 135 CAR, 763 YDS, 13 TD
Dallas Wilson
Rec 29 REC, 403 YDS, 3 TD

Gunner Stockton
Pass 117/158, 1570 YDS, 16 TD, 4 INT
Dwight Phillips Jr.
Rush 47 CAR, 348 YDS, 2 TD
Craig Dandridge
Rec 17 REC, 310 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FLA	UGA
Points Per Game	39.6	43.0
Total Yards	450.9	469.9
Yards Passing	256.6	272.1
Yards Rushing	194.3	197.7
Points Allowed Per Game	28.3	15.9
Yards Allowed	376.6	276.4
Pass Yards Allowed	255.0	185.0
Rush Yards Allowed	121.6	91.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Florida vs Georgia prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UGA -10.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Florida 22.3, Georgia 34.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Georgia 78%, Florida 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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