NCAAFSat 6:45 PM CTDonald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium

#23 Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

TV · SEC Network

Sat 6:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ARK +10

51%

At lock MIZ 29.71–20.18 ARK · MIZ by 9.5 pts vs ARK +10 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Simmons · MIZ
QB
J. Roberts · MIZ
RB
C. Lee · MIZ
WR
K. Jackson · ARK
QB
B. Russell · ARK
RB
C. Marshall · ARK
WR

#23Missouri Tigers

5-2 · L1

218 PF · 137 PA

29.71

Projected

Arkansas Razorbacks

3-4 · W1 · computer pick

147 PF · 187 PA

20.18

MIZ 72%ARK 28%

At lock: projected MIZ 29.71–20.18 ARK

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MIZ -7.7

MIZ -10.0

Total

49.9

49.5

Gap: +2.3 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MIZ vs ARK

The model

How this number was built

MIZ 29.71–20.18 ARK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ARK +2.0 vs MIZ +12.2 · pred margin -9.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.3 vs +7.9 · model ARK 21.0–29.6 MIZ
Home field
+3.0 pts to ARK
Record
ARK 3-4 · MIZ 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MIZ -10 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Austin Simmons
Pass 132/209, 1773 YDS, 14 TD, 2 INT
Jamal Roberts
Rush 167 CAR, 867 YDS, 8 TD
Cayden Lee
Rec 47 REC, 678 YDS, 5 TD

KJ Jackson
Pass 131/215, 1444 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
Braylen Russell
Rush 58 CAR, 205 YDS, 2 TD
Chris Marshall
Rec 43 REC, 633 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MIZ	ARK
Points Per Game	31.1	21.0
Total Yards	429.6	343.0
Yards Passing	268.3	231.4
Yards Rushing	161.3	111.6
Points Allowed Per Game	19.6	26.7
Yards Allowed	330.4	357.7
Pass Yards Allowed	226.6	213.0
Rush Yards Allowed	103.9	144.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Missouri vs Arkansas prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ARK +10, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Missouri 29.7, Arkansas 20.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Arkansas 28%, Missouri 72%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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