NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTJordan-Hare Stadium

#18 LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers

TV · ABC

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

AUB +8.5

52%

LSU 28.53–20.77 AUB

#18LSU Tigers

5-2 · W1

283 PF · 111 PA

28.53

Projected

Auburn Tigers

4-2 · W1 · computer pick

161 PF · 131 PA

20.77

LSU 68%AUB 32%

Projected LSU 28.53–20.77 AUB

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LSU -6.2

LSU -8.5

Total

48.9

49.5

Gap: +2.3 margin, -0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: LSU vs AUB

The model

How this number was built

LSU 28.53–20.77 AUB · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
AUB +13.4 vs LSU +23.0 · pred margin -7.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.5 vs +11.2 · model AUB 21.0–26.4 LSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to AUB
Record
AUB 4-2 · LSU 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LSU -8.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Sam Leavitt
Pass 148/211, 1785 YDS, 14 TD, 8 INT
Dilin Jones
Rush 128 CAR, 566 YDS, 5 TD
Jackson Harris
Rec 27 REC, 456 YDS, 5 TD

Byrum Brown
Pass 119/185, 1205 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT
Byrum Brown
Rush 107 CAR, 459 YDS, 5 TD
Keshaun Singleton
Rec 32 REC, 367 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LSU	AUB
Points Per Game	40.4	26.8
Total Yards	504.0	394.2
Yards Passing	308.0	212.2
Yards Rushing	196.0	182.0
Points Allowed Per Game	15.9	21.8
Yards Allowed	256.4	371.0
Pass Yards Allowed	168.3	228.0
Rush Yards Allowed	88.1	143.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

LSU vs Auburn prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is AUB +8.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects LSU 28.5, Auburn 20.8. Model win probability: Auburn 32%, LSU 68%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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