NBAMon 9:00 PM CTBall Arena

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

TV · NBCSN

Mon 9:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

DEN -7.5

51%

At lock GS 113.25–121.15 DEN · DEN by 7.9 pts vs DEN -7.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

S. Curry · GS
Guard
Y. Lendeborg · GS
Forward
D. Green · GS
Forward
N. Jokic · DEN
Center

Data-Driven Pick · D. Green Over 7.5 pts

-107

Golden State Warriors

0-3 · L3

335 PF · 369 PA

113.25

Projected

Denver Nuggets

1-1 · W1 · computer pick

225 PF · 231 PA

121.15

GS 25%DEN 75%

At lock: projected GS 113.25–121.15 DEN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DEN -9.2

DEN -7.5

Total

233.7

233.5

Gap: +1.7 margin, +0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GS vs DEN

The model

How this number was built

GS 113.25–121.15 DEN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DEN +2.8 vs GS -3.7 · pred margin +8.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +3.6 vs -3.0 · model DEN 121.5–112.7 GS
Home field
+2.8 pts to DEN
Record
DEN 1-1 · GS 0-3
Market prior
Blended 70% toward DEN -7.5 / total 233.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Stephen Curry
PTS 23.5
Yaxel Lendeborg
REB 8.3
Draymond Green
AST 7.0
Yaxel Lendeborg
rating 18.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.3 BPG

Nikola Jokic
PTS 24.0
Nikola Jokic
REB 11.0
Nikola Jokic
AST 7.5
Nikola Jokic
rating 24.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 7.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 2.0 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GS	DEN
STRK	L3	W1
OPP PPG	123.0	115.5
L10	0-3	1-1
PTS	111.7	112.5
FG%	42	44
3P%	34	30
REB	40.3	52.0
AST	24.0	21.5
BLK	4.0	4.0
STL	12.0	8.0
TTO	0.7	0.5
ToTO	17.3	17.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

D. Green Over 7.5 pts

-10761%

Points · DraftKings

G. Santos Over 8.5 pts
Points · GS
-113
61%
D. Melton Over 9.5 pts
Points · GS
-113
61%
Y. Lendeborg Over 15.5 pts
Points · GS
-107
56%
S. Curry Under 24.5 pts
Points · GS
-108
52%

Warriors vs Nuggets prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is DEN -7.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Warriors 113.3, Nuggets 121.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Nuggets 75%, Warriors 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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