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Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz

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Computer pick · Total

Over 237.5

55%

At lock MEM 118.85–120.33 UTAH · 1.7 pts over 237.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. Jerome · MEM
Guard
C. Boozer · MEM
Forward
K. George · UTAH
Guard
L. Markkanen · UTAH
Forward
J. Jackson Jr. · UTAH
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · I. Collier Over 6.5 pts

-106

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · W4

480 PF · 435 PA

118.85

Projected

Utah Jazz

1-3 · L2

469 PF · 506 PA

120.33

MEM 44%UTAH 56%

At lock: projected MEM 118.85–120.33 UTAH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UTAH -2.2

UTAH -1.5

Total

239.7

238.5

Gap: +0.7 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MEM vs UTAH

The model

How this number was built

MEM 118.85–120.33 UTAH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UTAH -3.4 vs MEM -3.0 · pred margin +1.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net -5.9 vs -5.5 · model UTAH 122.2–120.7 MEM
Home field
+2.8 pts to UTAH
Record
UTAH 1-3 · MEM 4-0
Market prior
Blended 69% toward UTAH -1.5 / total 238.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ty Jerome
PTS 36.5
Cameron Boozer
REB 12.0
Ty Jerome
AST 5.5
Ty Jerome
rating 36.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.5 BPG

Keyonte George
PTS 20.5
Lauri Markkanen
REB 7.5
Keyonte George
AST 7.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.
rating 19.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.5 SPG, 2.5 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MEM	UTAH
STRK	W3	L1
OPP PPG	107.7	124.7
L10	3-0	1-2
PTS	117.0	111.5
FG%	47	48
3P%	38	36
REB	51.0	40.0
AST	25.0	28.0
BLK	7.0	8.5
STL	7.5	6.5
TTO	2.0	0.0
ToTO	21.0	18.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

I. Collier Over 6.5 pts

-10663%

Points · DraftKings

A. Bailey Over 11.5 pts
Points · UTAH
-120
60%
D. Peterson Over 11.5 pts
Points · UTAH
-116
60%
K. George Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · UTAH
-118
57%
J. Jackson Jr. Over 17.5 pts
Points · UTAH
-107
56%
J. Jackson Jr. Over 2.5 ast
Assists · UTAH
+137
54%
L. Markkanen Over 22.5 pts
Points · UTAH
-114
53%
K. George Over 19.5 pts
Points · UTAH
-109
52%
K. George Under 6.5 ast
Assists · UTAH
+110
52%
I. Collier Over 4.5 ast
Assists · UTAH
-114
51%

Grizzlies vs Jazz prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 237.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Grizzlies 118.8, Jazz 120.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Jazz 56%, Grizzlies 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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