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Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

TV · ESPN

Thu 8:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 235.5

50%

At lock DEN 113.93–121.48 OKC · 0.1 pts under 235.5

Players

S. Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
Goalkeeper
C. Holmgren · OKC
Forwards
A. Mitchell · OKC
Goalkeeper

Data-Driven Pick · I. Hartenstein Over 8.5 pts

-102

Denver Nuggets

0-0

113.93

Projected

Oklahoma City Thunder

1-0 · W1

116 PF · 104 PA

121.48

DEN 26%OKC 74%

At lock: projected DEN 113.93–121.48 OKC

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

OKC -7.6

OKC -7.5

Total

235.2

235.5

Gap: +0.1 margin, -0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DEN vs OKC

The model

How this number was built

DEN 113.93–121.48 OKC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
OKC +9.1 vs DEN +3.3 · pred margin +7.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. net +6.3 vs +3.9 · model OKC 119.1–115.0 DEN
Home field
+2.8 pts to OKC
Record
OKC 1-0 · DEN 0-0
Market prior
Blended 72% toward OKC -7.5 / total 235.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

No leaders listed for DEN.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
PTS 32.0
Chet Holmgren
REB 7.0
Ajay Mitchell
AST 6.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
rating 32.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 3.0 SPG, 3.0 BPG

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DEN	OKC
STRK	-	W1
OPP PPG	0.0	104.0
L10	—	1-0
PTS	—	116.0
FG%	—	45
3P%	—	45
REB	—	47.0
AST	—	24.0
BLK	—	10.0
STL	—	8.0
TTO	—	3.0
ToTO	—	14.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

I. Hartenstein Over 8.5 pts

-10261%

Points · DraftKings

C. Wallace Over 8.5 pts
Points · OKC
-113
61%
C. Braun Over 10.5 pts
Points · DEN
-103
60%
A. Gordon Over 13.5 pts
Points · DEN
-116
58%
C. Holmgren Over 14.5 pts
Points · OKC
-112
58%
C. Wallace Over 3.5 reb
Rebounds · OKC
+116
57%
C. Holmgren Over 1.5 ast
Assists · OKC
+111
56%
J. Williams Over 4.5 reb
Rebounds · OKC
-114
56%
A. Gordon Over 2.5 ast
Assists · DEN
+130
54%
C. Wallace Over 2.5 ast
Assists · OKC
+120
54%
J. Williams Over 19.5 pts
Points · OKC
-102
54%
A. Gordon Over 5.5 reb
Rebounds · DEN
-107
54%

Nuggets vs Thunder prediction · Oct 22, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 235.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Nuggets 113.9, Thunder 121.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Thunder 74%, Nuggets 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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