Ligue 1Fri 1:00 PM CTAllianz Riviera

Stade Rennais at Nice

Fri 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

52%

At lock REN 1.69–1.48 NICE · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

E. Lepaul · REN
Forward
E. Wahi · NICE
Forward

Stade Rennais

5-1-2

Form DDLWW · 18 PF · 14 PA

1.69

Projected

Nice

3-2-3

Form DLWWL · 8 PF · 10 PA

1.48

REN 42%Draw 26%NICE 33%

At lock: projected REN 1.69–1.48 NICE · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NICE win

45%

46% (no-vig)

Total

3.17

3.5

Gap: -0 pts of win %, -0.33 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

REN 1.69–1.48 NICE · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NICE att -0.17 / def -0.08 · REN att +0.18 / def -0.11 · model NICE 1.5–1.7 REN
Home field
+0.3 goals to NICE
Record
NICE 3-2-3 · REN 5-1-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Esteban Lepaul
goals 7
Esteban Lepaul
goalsleaders 7

Elye Wahi
goals 3
Elye Wahi
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	REN	NICE
Goal Difference	4	-2
Total Goals	18	8
Assists	12	6
Goals Against	14	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

E. Lepaul anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+145
41%
B. Dia anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+170
37%
S. Diop anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+215
32%
G. Hein anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+255
28%
I. Jansson anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+255
28%
L. Blas anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+260
28%
E. Mayenda anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+280
26%
A. Nordin anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+400
20%
E. Pereira anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+400
20%
S. Szymanski anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+425
19%
A. Thomasson anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+450
18%
M. Sanson anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+450
18%

Rennes vs Nice prediction · Oct 30, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Rennes 1.7, Nice 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Nice 33%, Rennes 42%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Ligue 1 picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day