Liga MXWed 10:00 PM CTEstadio Banorte

Tijuana at América

Wed 10:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

63%

At lock TIJ 0.97–2.12 AME · 0.4 goals under 3.5 · 63% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

G. Mora · TIJ
Midfielder
H. Martín · AME
Forward

Tijuana

5-5-3

Form DDDDL · 21 PF · 17 PA

0.97

Projected

América

8-3-2

Form DWWDW · 33 PF · 18 PA

2.12

TIJ 16%Draw 22%AME 62%

At lock: projected TIJ 0.97–2.12 AME · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

AME win

74%

82% (no-vig)

Total

3.08

3.5

Gap: -9 pts of win %, -0.42 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2030 vs old model 0.2266. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

TIJ 0.97–2.12 AME · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AME att +0.19 / def +0.15 · TIJ att -0.13 / def -0.06 · model AME 2.1–1.0 TIJ
Home field
+0.3 goals to AME
Record
AME 8-3-2 · TIJ 5-5-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gilberto Mora
goals 5
Gilberto Mora
goalsleaders 5

Henry Martín
goals 8
Henry Martín
goalsleaders 8

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TIJ	AME
Goal Difference	4	15
Total Goals	21	33
Assists	11	21
Goals Against	17	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

G. Mora anytime goal
Anytime goal · TIJ
+360
22%
A. Gutierrez anytime goal
Anytime goal · AME
+800
11%
J. Porozo anytime goal
Anytime goal · TIJ
+1400
7%
I. Reyes anytime goal
Anytime goal · AME
+1900
6%

Tijuana vs América prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Tijuana 1.0, América 2.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: América 62%, Tijuana 16%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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