La LigaMon 2:00 PM CTEstadio Coliseum

Rayo Vallecano at Getafe

TV · ESPN Deportes

Mon 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 1.5

60%

RAY 0.96–1.07 GET

Rayo Vallecano

2-2-3

Form DWLWL · 11 PF · 16 PA

0.96

Projected

Getafe

2-2-4

Form DLWLD · 4 PF · 10 PA

1.07

RAY 31%Draw 33%GET 36%

Projected RAY 0.96–1.07 GET · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

GET win

53%

47% (no-vig)

Total

2.03

1.5

Gap: +6 pts of win %, +0.53 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

RAY 0.96–1.07 GET · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GET att -0.48 / def +0.13 · RAY att -0.13 / def -0.04 · model GET 1.1–1.0 RAY
Home field
+0.3 goals to GET
Record
GET 2-2-4 · RAY 2-2-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Sergio Camello
goals 7
Sergio Camello
goalsleaders 7

Martín Satriano
goals 1
Martín Satriano
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RAY	GET
Goal Difference	-5	-6
Total Goals	11	4
Assists	8	2
Goals Against	16	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

S. Camello anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAY
+250
29%
B. Mayoral anytime goal
Anytime goal · GET
+275
27%
R. Nteka anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAY
+340
23%
R. Belaid anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAY
+600
14%
F. Serrano anytime goal
Anytime goal · GET
+950
10%
A. Risco anytime goal
Anytime goal · GET
+1000
9%
N. Gudelj anytime goal
Anytime goal · GET
+1400
7%
F. Lejeune anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAY
+1800
6%
J. Mojica anytime goal
Anytime goal · GET
+2200
6%
O. Mangala anytime goal
Anytime goal · GET
+1600
6%
M. Kumbulla anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAY
+2500
6%
S. Lozano anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAY
+3000
6%

Rayo vs Getafe prediction · Oct 19, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 1.5, with a 60% model probability. The model projects Rayo 1.0, Getafe 1.1. Model win probability: Getafe 36%, Rayo 31%, draw 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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