EPLMon 2:00 PM CTTottenham Hotspur Stadium

Coventry City at Tottenham Hotspur

TV · USA Net

Mon 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

COV 1.29–1.45 TOT

Coventry City

2-0-4

Form DWLLL · 5 PF · 11 PA

1.29

Projected

Tottenham Hotspur

0-3-3

Form DLLDD · 3 PF · 9 PA

1.45

COV 32%Draw 28%TOT 40%

Projected COV 1.29–1.45 TOT · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

TOT win

54%

80% (no-vig)

Total

2.74

2.5

Gap: -26 pts of win %, +0.24 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

COV 1.29–1.45 TOT · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TOT att -0.20 / def -0.11 · COV att -0.14 / def -0.12 · model TOT 1.5–1.3 COV
Home field
+0.3 goals to TOT
Record
TOT 0-3-3 · COV 2-0-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jay Da Silva
goals 1
Jay Da Silva
goalsleaders 1

Jan Paul van Hecke
goals 1
Jan Paul van Hecke
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	COV	TOT
Goal Difference	-6	-6
Total Goals	5	3
Assists	3	3
Goals Against	11	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Solanke anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOT
+125
44%
J. Maddison anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOT
+175
36%
T. Awoniyi anytime goal
Anytime goal · COV
+260
28%
A. Robertson anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOT
+1200
8%
M. Grimes anytime goal
Anytime goal · COV
+1300
7%
B. Davies anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOT
+1400
7%
T. Adarabioyo anytime goal
Anytime goal · TOT
+1400
7%

Coventry vs Spurs prediction · Oct 19, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Coventry 1.3, Spurs 1.4. Model win probability: Spurs 40%, Coventry 32%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day